For You We Did The Last War

Mr. "Divine Victory" (A.K.A Hassouna) has admitted that he did the last war for the release of Mr. Kuntar.


So again, just a reminder about the cost of 2006 war:

• 1200 civilians dead
• billions of dollars in damages
• 4 more prisoners in Israel

All of that equals the release of Mr. Kuntar.

Do not misunderstand me, I am not against his release. But, I think we could have done in a very different way.

What's Next for HizbIran (A.K.A. Hezbollah)?

Internally, Johnny Abdo mentioned on Bikol Jeraa that HizbIran’s plans are to make sure that they have majority (over 2/3) in the next Parliamentary elections. He mentioned that, like Iran, they would not allow their opponents to exist.Three possibilities in here:

1. Taken over Lebanon - HizbIran will take over Lebanon. He will be exactly like his Syrian masters before in Lebanon. I think that they have the capabilities to spread on all Lebanese territories. But they cannot last in any position other than their own territories (most of the South, parts of Bekaa, Southern suburb of Beirut). They have no manpower to be able to be everywhere like the Syrians before. The Syrians had in Lebanon 14,000 soldiers . And on top of that, Lebanese people feared them. So fear and quantity (not “quality”) helped in controlling Lebanon. HizbIran does not have that. HizbIran has 1,000 full-time members, along with a further 6,000-10,000 volunteers . HizbIran’s strength is in militias’ kind of battles and not traditional warfare techniques. So, they are not trained to take over positions and keeping them. And it will be against their tactics if a war is to happen with Israel. This possibility is a suicide for HizbIran.
2. Status Quo - Keep everything as-is even if a government is formed. Fighting will erupt from time to time in different areas while HizbIran is expanding its network and military presence in most of Lebanon. Election will happen under the influence of the guns maybe it will lead to the third possibility.
   
3. Iranian Style Election - HizbIran will push March14 leaders outside of the country or will assassinate them. In any way or form, HizbIran will make sure that they will not be able to nominate themselves for election. And if they did, HizbIran will make sure that they are not elected. HizbIran and company will be the only winners.

Regionally, It is a public knowledge that HizbIran made sure that Iran is on the northern borders of Israel. Iranian Republican Guards’ commander said clearly that their allies in Lebanon would be hitting Israel with missiles in case of an attack on Iran. I see that as one-way orders to HizbIran to abide by. So, HizbIran is spreading in Lebanon. They are not denying that. HizbIran is ready to engage in a war if Iran is attacked. In conclusion, I cannot see any bright future for Lebanon with HizbIran’s presence.